Canada Immigration Levels Plan 2026–2028: What to Expect Under Mark Carney
- Tiffany Chia
- 4 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
Published: October 24, 2025 | By: Tiffany Chia
Every fall, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announces how many new residents Canada plans to welcome.
This year’s plan (2026–2028) will be the first under Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Carney has promised to keep immigration strong but sustainable — balancing growth with housing, jobs and services
🔔 Update Notice on Canada Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028
This article includes forecasts based on the official IRCC 2025–2027 Immigration
The new 2026–2028 plan is expected by November 1, 2025.
Once IRCC releases the confirmed numbers, we’ll update this post within 24 hours with official data, charts & analysis.
Permanent Residents — Stable Growth
From the official 2025–2027 plan (published Oct 24 2024):
Year | Target PR Admissions | Prediction |
2025 | 395 000 |
|
2026 | 380 000 | 370 000 - 380 000 |
2027 | 365 000 | 360 000 - 370 000 |
2028 | 350 000 - 360 000 |
Forecast 2026–2028: PR admissions will likely stay between 370 K – 380 K, below 1 % of Canada’s population (~41.6 M).
Economic Class (Express Entry + PNP)
Year | Federal Economic Priorities | In-Canada Focus | Total | Prediction |
2025 | 41 700 | 82 980 | 124 680 | |
2026 | 47 400 | 75 830 | 123 230 | 124 000 |
2027 | 47 800 | 70 930 | 118 730 | 120 000 |
2028 | 118 000 |
Forecast: More draws for Healthcare , STEM , Trades , Agri-food , Education , and French .Possible new categories: Leadership & Innovation or Global Talent.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
IRCC’s official target = 55 000 per year (2025–2027).
Forecast: Small increase to 60 000 – 70 000 as provinces negotiate more control over local labour needs.
Family Class — Keeping Families Together
Family Class makes up about 24 % of total PR admissions in the 2025–2027 plan (IRCC source).
Forecast: Share to stay around 22 – 25 %, meaning similar spousal and child priority but limited Parent & Grandparent spots (PGP lottery likely continues).
Refugees & Protected Persons
Currently ≈ 15 % of PR admissions (IRCC supplementary tables).
Forecast: Similar share (14–16 %) for 2026–2028, adjusted for global crises and resettlement commitments.
Humanitarian & Compassionate (H&C) / Other
Source: IRCC CIMM Briefing Nov 25, 2024
Year | Admissions | Prediction |
2025 | 10 000 |
|
2026 | 6 900 | 6 000 to 7 000 |
2027 | 4 300 | 4 000 to 4 500 |
2028 | 3 000 to 3 500 |
Forecast: H&C may stabilize between 5 000 – 7 000 per year, with tighter eligibility and longer processing. This is also the category that as the longest backlog.
Francophone Immigration — Still Rising
Year | Target (Outside Quebec) | Prediction |
2025 | 8.5 % | |
2026 | 9.5 % | 9.5% |
2027 | 10 % | 10% |
2028 | 11% |
Goal = 12 % by 2029 under Carney’s direction. Expect continued French-language draws and settlement funding.
Students & Temporary Workers — Tighter but Targeted
Stream | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 (predicted) |
Students | 305 900 | 305 900 | 305 900 | 305 900 |
TFWP | 82 000 | 82 000 | 82 000 | 82 000 |
Forecast: Student caps stay steady nationwide but tighten in major cities; TFWP keeps ≈ 82 000 cap focused on health, construction and agri-food.
Key Takeaway
Canada is shifting from growth to balance
✅ PR levels steady (~ 380 K)
✅ Family ≈ 25% of total
✅ New Express Entry categories ahead
✅ PNP + French priority
✅ H&C more selective
✅ Temporary caps tighter
If you already study or work in Canada, you’re in a strong position
Frequently Asked Questions
When will IRCC release the new plan? Usually By Nov 1, 2025.
Where do these numbers come from?
The official IRCC 2025–2027 Levels Plan.
Will PR levels increase?
No — expect the same of slightly less ~ 370 000–380 000.
Any new Express Entry categories?
Likely Leadership & Innovation.
Family Class share?
22–25 %.
H&C numbers?
5–7 K per year.
Refugee share? ≈ 15 %
Student cap? 305 900 nationwide.
French goal?
9.5 % → 10 % → 12 % by 2029.
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Canada's Immigration Levels Plan 2026-2028 is the most important immigration announcement for 2025. The annual quota announcement will determine many related Canadian immigration policies and programs that will affect you as newcomer. Follow our blog by signing up as a site member or follow us on our social media channels (LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, Thread, X or Pinterest) to get the latest Canadian education and immigration related news and tips.
About the Author
Tiffany Chia, RCIC #R512971, founder of 1to1 Immigration Inc. in Vancouver, Canada. Originally from Singapore, Tiffany moved to Canada over 10 years ago and started 1to1 Immigration in 2015 to help others do the same. She has guided hundreds of families through Express Entry, Family Sponsorship and Study Permits.
⚠️ Disclaimer
All base figures come from IRCC’s official 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan and Government of Canada sources (Oct 2024).
Predictions for 2026–2028 reflect Mark Carney’s public statements and IRCC policy trends as of Oct 2025.
This article is for information only and not legal advice.